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Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 15, 2021
3:40pm ET
Yesterday's rally was not a one-off as all of the major averages are continuing to move higher. Today's really big news is that the Dow Transport Index not only crushed the other averages in terms of gains but more importantly, it hopped above major resistance. Adding to the good news is that the VIX shed another 5% to its lowest level (16) not seen since the beginning of September. These are all very bullish signs for a rally continuation.

The Good News
Breaking out to record highs: Financials (XLF), Broker/Dealers (IAI), Insurance (KIE), Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Breaking out: Bitcoin (GBTC), Peru (EPU—on its significant mining holdings)

The Bad News
Bonds reverse course yet again putting a halt on last week's turnaround rally. Two Treasuries (SHY, IEI) slumped to yearly lows.

Enjoy the beautiful weather and have a great weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, October 14, 2021
3:30pm ET
The market rebounded strongly today with all sectors and most commodities trading in the green. Volatility fell 9% to bullish levels not seen in over a month. Both the S&P and Dow Industrials are back to their 50 day moving averages. The Nasdaq lead the pack today headed up by Semiconductors (SMH, SOXX) and Hi-tech (BOTZ, QTUM, ROBO, CLOU, CIBR).

Commodity movers
Base metals (DBB, JJM) both popped to new highs.
Precious metals and miners continue to soar as Global Copper Miners (COPX) moved back to test major resistance.
The recent bullishness in this space has pushed the Commodity Index (DBC) to new yearly highs, gaining over 11% in 3 weeks.

Most currencies have been gaining ground against the greenback. Today, the Loonie (FXC) topped resistance, up over 0.5% on the day.

Global Funds
Indonesia funds have been on fire with EIDO up 17% and IDX up 13% in the past 2 weeks.
Norway (NORW) jumped to a 6 year high. This fund currently yields 2.1%.
India funds EPI and INDY both notched record highs.
Frontier Markets (FM) also moving to a new yearly high. This fund has been a stellar performer, having appreciated 75% since its March 2020 low. It currently yields 1.9%.

Bond funds across the board rose with International Funds getting the most love. The widely held Vanguard Developed Markets Fund (VEA) gained over 1%. The fund currently yields 2.4%.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, October 13, 2021
3:55pm ET
Today's analysis will be brief as Dr. Kris is a bit under the weather.
Cocoa ($NIB) tumbled 3%.
Precious metals and miners jumped. Silver miners topped that leaderboard. ($SIL, $SILJ).
Uranium exploded higher ($URNM +8.6%, $URA +7%, $CCJ +5%).
Bonds continue yesterday's strong reversal to the upside.

***The Stock Market Cook Book is out of the office today. See y'all manana!***
Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, October 11, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market began the week on an upnote but the early morning rally faded with most of the major averages trading either slightly in the red or near the flat line. Overall, there's not a lot of good news to propel the market higher except in the areas where bad news is good news, i.e. higher oil prices pushing that space higher and rising inflation causing bonds to tank. But more on both of those in a moment.

Today's Notable Winners
Platinum Group Metals ($PLG) broke above near-term support. It's unclear if this is the beginning of a rally or just a short-term phenomenon but with the expected increase in auto production next year, I tend to think there will be a bullish continuation. Because of supply chain issues, the platinum group metals have suffered causing this fund to shed 70% of its value since its January high.

Also moving higher are Aluminum ($JJU) and Industrial Metals (base metals) ($DBB, $JJM). All three of these funds jumped to new yearly highs, although it seems as if some buying exhaustion is setting in.

Oil continues to gush as the following funds inch to more new highs: $OIL, $USO, $BNO, $FRAK.

Today's Notable Losers
While fossil fuels have been rallying, the same is not true for the so-called clean energy names. Today, Wind Energy ($FAN) broke a major support level at $20. Could the next stop be at its $18 support level?

The Yen ($FXY) continues to slide. Today it slumped almost 1% (a lot in the currency market) to a near 5 year low at $83. The next stop could well be at its $80 support level. I would say sayonara on this one for a while.

Intermediate Term Bonds hit new lows: Treasuries ($SHY, $IEI), Investment Grade Corporate ($VCSH, $IGSB). International Bond fund $IGOV also recorded a new yearly low. Right now, only Junk Bond funds ($HYB, $HYT) seem to be holding up

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 8, 2021
2:45pm ET
A weak jobs report didn't tank the market but it didn't help it, either. The major averages are all trading lower or flatlining except for the Transport Index which is moving to the upside. Volatility is also lower—another good sign, at least for the near-term. However, considering the continuating budget and debt ceiling battles in Congress, I believe that all bets are off as to liong term market predictions.

There are some interesting market movements today, especially to the downside. Bonds continue to fall as Mortgage-backed Securities ($MBB, $VMBS) sink to new yearly lows. Corporate bonds ($LQD, $SPLB, $IGSB) are plunging through major support levels, a sign of more suffering to come. (Remember that higher bond yields decrease the value of current bonds.) The Yen ($FXY) also is notching a new yearly low.

On the flip side, the white metals Palladium ($PALL), Platinum ($PPLT), and Nickel ($JJN) all jumped in the 5% range today. The reason given for this big move is that auto makers should be able to return to full vehicle production next year as the semiconductor shortage is now forecast to be over by then. (The while metals are used in catalytic converters.)

Have a football-icious fall foliage weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, October 7, 2021
3:05pm ET
The market jumped on two pieces of news. Preliminary jobs report shows a drop in jobless claims—the first drop in a month. The second piece of news is that Republicans agreed to a debt limit extension, essentially doing one of the few things that Congress knows how to do best: Kicking the can down the road. (Other things they do admirably well is to bury any term-limit piece of legislation and to promptly vote themselves hefty raises.)

The major averages popped on the open reflecting a knee-jerk response to the news. However, the Transport Index is a little bit smarter than the rest and it isn't quite as easy to hoodwink as it began fading almost immediately after the open. As of this writing, it is the only major index now dipping into the red. What this may signal is that today's rally could be a one-off. Prudent investors may elect to wait for follow-through confirmation before taking this as a hard buy signal

Again, there's not a lot of notable news today. The big highlight is the jump in Chinese securities. The China Large-Cap fund ($FXI) gained over 4% with its high-tech names jumping even more: $BABA +9%, $TCEHY +8%, $KWEB +7%, $BIDU +5%. The other highlight is that the Russia Large Cap fund ($RSX) notched another new yearly high. It appears that communism does pay off.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, October 6, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market tanked on open but steadily recovered not only all of its ground but with some to spare. Most sectors followed suit with Utilities ($XLU) leading the pack. Tech names recovered some ground following a recent bout of the blues. Market internals suggest that short-term continuation of the rally is likely but a stubbornly elevated $VIX (Volatility Index) could put a damper on investor enthusiasm in the long run.

There's not a whole lot to report on today but here are a couple of technical standouts:
Globally, S. Korea ($EWY) and Latin America ($ILF) broke support while Indonesia ($IDX, $EIDO) pushed above major resistance.
In bonds, two Junk Bond funds ($HYG, $JNK) violated support levels.
In currencies, the Euro ($FXE) slid to a new yearly low on twice normal volume.

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, October 5, 2021
3:30pm ET
A broad market rebound salvaged the potential breakdown in the major averages, some of which have been testing major support levels as noted here in recent days. The Dow Transport Index is today's winner gaining over 2%. High tech names which have been foundering recently also got some much needed love. Buying pressure stopped the hemorrhaging in Facebook ($FB), despite yesterday's platform outages and whistleblower testimony before Congress. Kevin O'Leary (Shark Tank's Mr. Wonderful) came on CNBC today to say that Facebook is an important communication resource especially for small businesses. His well-timed oratorio probably helped shore up some perceived negativity about the company. (Ahem.)

Hitting New Highs:
Oil ($USO, $OIL, $BNO, $FRAK) and Nat Gas ($UNG) continue to flow higher as domestic and global supply constraints continue. This accounts for the break-out in the Russia Large Cap ($RSX) fund of which 36% of its holdings are in energy.
Commodities were mostly trading in the green with Cotton ($BAL) jumping 5.5% on very heavy volume.
FANG name Netflix ($NFLX) notched another record high, popping nearly 6% on twice normal volume. The reason for the move is a bullish earnings upgrade based on a very positive user survey.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, October 4, 2021
3:35pm ET
It appears as if the bears are moving into the driver's seat as pretty much all sectors save energy are trading to the downside. The S&P, Dow Industrials, and the Nasdaq have all slumped to major support levels while the market leading Dow Transport Index is still a breath above its support level. Should these indices breech these levels, the bears would definitely be in control. In this case, raising cash and sitting on the sidelines would be the prudent play call.

Big News of the Day: Social media giant Facebook ($FB) tumbled nearly 6% on outages in its Facebook, What's App, and Instagram platforms. Nice job to the brilliant hacker who did this. Would you please take down Twitter next?

Today's Notable Breakouts
Oil is gushing higher as barrel prices continue to rise (thanks Joe!). Hitting new yearly highs are $OIL, $USO, $BNO, $FRAK along with Oil Producers ($XOP).
Shipping ($BDRY) continues to cruise to new highs.

Today's Notable Breakdowns
Rare Earths ($REMX)
Tech: Software ($PSJ), Internet ($PNQI), Robotics & AI ($BOTZ), IT ($VGT). The much touted Innovation etf ($ARKK) managed by current Wall Street darling fund manager Cathy Wood also broke support, due in part to its heavy holding in Facebook ($FB). This fund has been in a swoon since its February high.
Big Tech companies ($AAPL, $TWTR, $FB (See above))
Healthcare ($XLV, $IXJ), Medical device makers ($IHI), and Biotech ($IBB, $BBH)
China ($CHN, $FXI (new yearly low)), Japan ($EWJ)

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 1, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market mercifully rebounded today, in some cases erasing yesterday's losses. The major averages managed to hang onto support levels, at least for now. However, if one looks at the market internals, things don't seem quite so rosy. I will be writing a short piece on the state of the market to be posted later today, so stay tuned! [Update at 7:30pm ET: The article has just been posted below.]

Today's Highlights
Softs (aka agricultural commodities) jumped with Coffee ($JO, +5.3%), Wheat ($WEAT, +3.7%), and Cocoa ($NIB, +3%) gaining the most.
Today's gains in nearly all commodities pushed the Commodity fund ($DBC) to an all-time high. Also notching a record high is Shipping ($BDRY).
Bonds are having a good day as interest rates sink. Investors are happy with the news and there is heavy buying activity especially in Treasuries. Long term debt is receiving the most love with $TLT, $VGLT, and $TLH up 0.6%-0.8% as today's biggest gainers.

That's it for now. Enjoy the weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, September 30, 2021
2:55pm ET
Major averages are lower today with all of them except the Russell 2000 testing major support levels. However, there are signs that prices are firming up and the support levels could hold—at least for today.

Today's trading action is fairly nondescript but there are a few highlights. Precious metals firmed up today with buyers stepping in to shore up yesterday's sell-off. FANG name Netflix ($NFLX) jumped 3% to a record high as the company moves into the mobile videogaming space.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, September 29, 2021
3:35pm ET
The major averages are absorbing yesterday's sell-off with all of them trading in the green except for the Transports. The Transport Index is traditionally regarded as a leading market indicator and its chart is showing a steady decline from its March 1600 high. If's close to
Recent Articles
Is a Correction Looming?
October 1, 2021 at 4:20 pm

The market has been defying gravity since the March, 2009 low and many Wall Street pundits forecast a continuation of the melt up at least until the end of this year. But is this prognostication justified?

Could it be that the continued rise in equities is due to the fact that the Fed has kept interest rates artificially low? Many say that this is the likely case and I have to agree with them. But will this continue to be the case? Maybe for the near future but what happens if inflation keeps rising, as it has started to do? There’s no doubt, at least in my mind, that we could be in for a painful market correction. The reason I draw this conclusion is based in part on the market internals, many of which are near, at, or have exceeded historic levels.

Let’s consider some key internals gathered by multpl.com over the past 150 years for the large-cap S&P 500 index:

Price/Earnings (P/E)
Current: 33.99 (Third highest in history)
Historic Mean: 15.95
% Above/Below the mean: +213%
Historic Median: 14.86
% Above/Below the mean: +229%

Current: 4.64 (Second highest in history)
Historic Mean: 2.89
% Above/Below the mean: +160%
Historic Median: 2.78
% Above/Below the mean: +167%

Current: 3.13 (Highest in history)
Historic Mean: 1.62
% Above/Below the mean: +193%
Historic Median: 1.52
% Above/Below the mean: +206%

Earnings Yield
Current: 2.94% (Third lowest in history)
Historic Mean: 7.30%
% Above/Below the mean: -60%
Historic Median: 6.73%
% Above/Below the mean: -56%

Dividend Yield
Current: 1.33% (A virtual tie with the 2000 historic low)
Historic Mean: 4.30%
% Above/Below the mean: -69%
Historic Median: 4.26%
% Above/Below the mean: -69%

The above statics indeed show that the market is on very shaky grounds. There is no question that we are well overdue for a reversion to the mean but when exactly that will occur is up to the Fed regarding monetary policy and up to Congress regarding raising the debt ceiling and continuing their drunken spending spree.

Methinks this won’t end well.

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