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*** The Stock Market Cook Book is out of the office today and tomorrow. We will be back on Friday. ***
Intraday Market Notes & Observations
Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, November 30, 2021
4:00pm ET
Meeoooowww....THUD! What was that? That was the sound of yesterday's dead cat bounce. Ouch! (Yes, I know dead cats don't meow but I'm using Schrodinger's cat in this example.) Anyway, pretty much every sector is trading in the red except for Treasuries (TLT +1.7%) and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD +0.3%). Among the major averages, the S&P, Dow Transports, and Dow Industrials all violated support levels. Volatility rebounded by 19%. Market internals are all singing the blues and it looks like we may be in for more pain going into December. The Santa rally may have to be put on hold, at least for now.

Today's Bad News Bears
Commodity Breakdowns: Merry Wanna (actually it's the Marijuana etf MJ) has been on a downhill toboggan ride since mid February. It is now testing major support.
Cocoa (NIB) is retesting its recent double bottom.
Timber (CUT), Sugar (SGG),and Nat Gas (UNG) all breaking support. It's worth noting that Oil Volatility spiked to a level not seen in over a year and a half, so expect some major price fluctuations in this group.

Sector and Industry Group Breakdowns:: Consumer Staples (XLP), Social Media (SOCL), Insurance (KIE), Aero & Defense (PPA), Building Materials (XLB), Online Retail (IBUY).

Notable Stock Breakdowns: Chinese online retailer Alibaba (BABA), REITs (NLY, AGNC), Snapchat (SNAP), Twitter (TWTR), and fake meat maker Beyond Meat (BYND). Did you know that 1,443 patents related to meat substitutes have been filed in the last 5 years? Do you really want to eat something made out of a slurry of chemicals processed in a lab? I know I don't.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, November 29, 2021
4:00pm ET
News of a new Covid variant put the kibosh on the traditional Black Friday rally. On the heels of the massive sell-off, it's not surpising that we got a bounce today. But the question now is whether today is a dead-cat bounce or the start of a Santa rally?

Tech and semis got smacked down on Friday but are among today's biggest gainers. But the gains in these groups pales in comparison to today's biggest winner—Shipping (BDRY). This etf rose over 9% to break near-term resistance. Could investors be thinking that the supply chain bottleneck will be easing soon?

Other notable technical events include a new yearly high in Rare Earth Elements (REMX), a new yearly low in Chinese tech giant Alibaba (BABA), and a break down in Saudi Arabia (KSA). This fund has been in free fall for the past week.

Costco (COST) gained 2% to hit another record high. This stock has been a stellar performer since its 1986 inception where it debuted at $2.52. It is now trading at $556. You can do the math.

In other news, Twitter (TWTR) CEO Jack Dorsey stepped down today. The news initially cheered investors who bid up the stock by 10% over Friday's close. But after it was announced that the CTO, a company insider, would be Dorsey's replacement, the stock immediately sold off and relinquished all of its earlier gains. One could infer that investors were hoping for an outsider to be named to the top position. And I agree with them. The company is losing its subscriber base in part due to its politically partial (and draconian) editorial stance. Alienating half of the country probably isn't a prudent business model.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, November 24, 2021
3:30pm ET
The market sold off on the open but began rising shortly afterward. Right now, it appears that the major averages will close somewhere close to the flat line. The market is closed tomorrow but it will be open for a half day on Friday (1pm ET market close). Note that Black Friday has traditionally been an up day in the market, for all of your futures or short-term options traders.

There's really not a heck of a lot to report on today. Volume is weak as traders head for an early holiday exit. Most of the news is a lather, rinse, repeat cycle of the previous couple of weeks. Coffee (JO) continues to climb into record high territory. The Dollar (UUP) jumps another 0.4% again while the Yen (FXY), Pound (FXB), Euro (FXE) sink to new yearly lows. Mexico funds (MXF, EWW) broke support levels.

In retail, Nordstroms (JWN, -23%) and Gap (GPS, -24%) got marked down severely as both reported Q3 earnings below expectations. The news had an impact on most other retailers whether they deserved it or not. In particular, Macy's (M), Dillards (DDS), and Kohls (KSS) all sank despite the fact that they all beat earnings and raised guidance.

That's it for now. The Stock Market Cook Book will be off Friday and we'll see you back here next week. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, November 23, 2021
4:00pm ET
Investors decided that yep, tech valuations are too high and are booking profits. At one point this morning, the tech heavy Nasdaq was down about 1% but has been slowly rising since. The S&P and the Russell are also trading in the red but the Industrials and the Transports managed to buck the trend and are looking to close well into the green. While this may be good news going forward, the dark cloud on the horizon is the VIX which topped the 20 mark—aka the bull/bear dividing line. It hasn't been in bear territory in over a month.

But is this the start of a sell-off? It's certainly not clear yet as investors still have very few alternatives. One thing to watch is if the Russell can hold onto its 2300 support level which it tested today. If it can't, it may be an early indication that investors are souring on the market overall and aren't interested in taking on more risk. I don't know. I wish my crystal ball was clearer.

Notable Highlights: Ag and energy continue to rally. Today, Coffee (JO) perked to a record high and Wheat (WEAT) also sprouted a new yearly high. It looks like coffee and donuts just got more expensive.

Notable Lowlights: Tarnish is spreading over all precious metals as they continue to plunge. Today's biggest losers are the Platinum and Palladium group (PALL, PPLT, PLG, SPPP) which all shed over 4%. Maybe this Christmas he can afford to go to Jared.

Breaking support levels are Gaming (BJK), Medical Devices (IHI), and Online Retail (IBUY).

Bonds continue their downward spiral as Mortgage-backed Securities (MBB) and a few International Bond funds (IGOV, WIP, VWOB) hit new lows.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, November 22, 2021
3:25pm ET
A rollercoaster day in the market as the major averages popped on the open, plummeted shortly thereafter, reversed course and are now moving back up. Contributing to the turmoil was the announcement that Biden appointed Jerome Powell to another term as the head of the Fed. It is expected that a Powell led Fed will begin raising interest rates in the late spring or early next summer. The expectation is not helping the bond market which had another bad day.

In currencies, the US dollar (UUP) jumped another half percent (a big move in the currency market) in a continuation of its recent break out. On the flip side, the Euro (FXE) sank to another yearly low.

In commodities, precious metals and miners fell across the board (GLD, GDX, SLV, SIL). Wheat (WEAT) hit a new high.

In tech, both Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) logged record highs.

Globally, Mother Russia (RSX) plummeted by 5%. Oil giant Gazprom (OZGPY) sank 7% and is one of the funds major holdings.

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, November 19, 2021
3:45pm ET
A mixed market today with the Dow Industrials and the Russell both looking to close out the week on a down note. On the flip side, the Nasdaq broke out to a record high as major components Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both move to new highs. Also notching record highs are Tech (XLK), IT (VGT), Homebuilders (XHB), Semis (SOXX), Infrastructure (GRID), Water (PHO, FIW)--you know, the usual suspects.

The continuing fall in oil sent the Energy etf (XLE) below its first line of support. It may be too early to predict a sell-off but if you're overweight this sector, you may want to begin taking some chips off the table.

The news of a covid lockdown in Austria plus the threat of lockdowns from others in the region forced many Euro funds to break their first lines of support: UK (EWU), Italy (EWI), Belgium (EWK), Spain (EWP), Austria (EWO), Russia (RSX). The Euro (FXE) reversed course to sink to a new yearly low while the USD (UUP) bounced to a new high. It was a good day for bond funds as yields sank.

That's about it. Have a good weekend. Go Bruins! Beat 'SC!!!!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, November 18, 2021
3:50pm ET
The major averages all slumped on the open but some have been able to claw their ways back. It appears as if the S&P and the Nasdaq will be closing in the green with the Transports and the Industrials at least breaking even leaving the small-cap Russell to eat their dust. Bonds had a good day especially muni bond funds.

Sector movement was mixed as well. Recent record holders advanced again as Semis (SMH, SOXX), Retail (RTH), and Tech (XLK) made new highs. Tech was helped in part by Apple (AAPL) which announced that it was throwing its hat into the autonomous vehicle manufacturing arena. This announcement helped to move the stock to another all-time high.

On the down side, Twitter (TWTR) sank over 4%, slicing through major support. The stock has been in a downward spiral since its mid-summer high. It was just reported that a company insider sold a large chunk of stock which likely accelerated today's sell-off.

The Marijuana fund (MJ, $13.25) has also been a major bummer for investors. It's been in steady decline since its February high (pun intended) and today broke major support. It could easily test its next minor support level at $12.50 but with the continuing intense downward pressure on this puppy, I wouldn't be surprised if it sinks all the way to the $10 level. Now that would be a really bad trip!

In commodities, Oil etfs are starting to break down (OIH, XES, PXJ) as is Steel (SLX). In currencies, the dollar lost some steam today as other currencies rebounded.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, November 17, 2021
3:35pm ET
The market is taking a break today with most sectors trading slightly down. The Transports and the Russell are the biggest losers among the major averages with both losing over 1% of their values.

Agricultural commodities rose which is a bad sign for consumers. Coffee (JO) hit a record high which means that a cup of regular barista-made coffee could well cost in the $4-$5 range soon. (I shudder to think how much a double decaffeinated half-caf is going to cost.) On the FANG front, Netflix (NFLX) moved into record high territory—again.

Globally, Taiwan (EWT) also hit a record high which is head-scratching since if I were invested in the country, I'd be dumping my holdings on the very real fear of a mainland Chinese takeover. On the flip side, South American funds are having a bad day with a couple of them breaking support levels--Columbia (GXG) and Latin America (ILF). The Frontier Market fund (FM) which has been a stellar performer in recent months is finally cooling off. Today the stock opened well below its first line of support on three times normal volume.

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, November 16, 2021
4:00pm ET
The market rallied today with all of the major averages closing in the green. Most of the recent market winners continued their winning streaks with the following groups moving again into record territory: Homebuilders (XHB), Water (PIO, FIW), Retail (RTH), Tech (XLK), Global Social Media (IXN), and IT (VGT).

The market's current darling is the EV Maker industry. Investors can't get enough of these companies and are buying them hand over fist. Spurred by upcoming catalysts (the LA Auto Show being one of them), investors piled into several of the more sexy new EV makers causing their share prices to zoom higher on heavy trading volume: Lucid (LCID, +24%), Canoo (GOEV, +24%), Rivian (RIVN, +15%), Fisker (FSR, +10%). It's interesting to note that many of these companies began life as SPACs.

The dollar continues to soar pushing the Bull Dollar fund (UUP) above a major resistance level. Conversely, the other major currencies continue to drop with the Yen (FXY) breaking support to fall to a level not seen In five years. Cryptocurrencies also fell with Bitcoin (GBTC) and Ethereum (ETHE) shedding over 8%.

Bonds continue to suffer as interest rates creep up. International Bond funds (IGOV, ISHG) were among today's biggest disappointments as their share prices fell to new yearly lows.

Globally, the United Arab Emirates etf (UAE, $16.71) has been soaring. Today, the stock rose 2.5% on twelve times normal volume. I couldn't find the catalyst for today's move but it's worth noting that the fund currently yields 3%.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, November 15, 2021
2:00pm ET
The market is calm today with most of the major averages trading slightly down. I am in a meeting so today's write up will be really brief. Coffee (JO) is trading at another record high but judging from what appears to be a hanging man formation, this could be a top. Consumer Staples (XLP) along with Retail (XRT, RTH) are also inching into new high territory. The Greenback (UUP) continues to gain ground as the Euro (FXE) is falls to a new yearly low. (Time to take that European vacation?) Bonds sink as interest rates rise pushing Mortgage-backed securities (MBB) to a new yearly low. Globally, Turkey (TUR) breaks out—just in time for Thanksgiving.

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, November 12, 2021
4:00pm ET
A broad market rally pushed the major averages into the green, closing the week out on a positive note. Inflation, which is now seen as not transitory as the Fed has maintained (gee, who would have thunk), continues to push commodities higher as Coffee (JO) reaches an all-time high. Precious metals and especially miners (GDX, SIL) continue to rise as investors search for safe havens to hedge against inflation. Travel was one of the day's only losing groups. Priceline (BKNG) fell 1.5% while the Airline etf (JETS) lost 2%.

Record Highs: Homebuilders (XLH), Materials (XLB); Israel (EIS)

Breaking out: Marijuana (MJ) floats over its first line of resistance. This etf has lost nearly 60% of its value since its February high. Could its recent rebound be the start of a new rally?

***The Stock Market Cook Book is closed in observance of Veteran's Day. We owe our past and present service members a big debt of gratitude in fighting for our freedoms. Thank you!***
Thursday, November 11, 2021

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, November 10, 2021
4:00pm ET
The big news today is that inflation has increased by 6.2%, although judging from my recent gas and grocery receipts I would say that it is a lot higher than that. The news caused both the bond and the stock markets to tumble. Hit the hardest was the tech sector which is understandable since it has been running on fumes for a while. Precious metals and miners—traditional inflation hedges—broke above resistance levels (GLD, GDX; SLV, SIL). The Greenback (UUP) jumped 1% whlle the Euro (FXE) dropped by the same amount to log a new yearly low. Most of the global funds were also down but the one really bright spot has been the Frontier Markets (FM, 1.8% yield). This fund has risen by an impressive 50% since August, 2020. The Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 6% to 19. Another down day would likely push it back over 20, the bull/bear dividing line.

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, November 9, 2021
4:00pm ET
The market fulfilled yesterday's prediction of a period of consolidation with all of the major averages closing in the red. Many sectors sank today but bucking the trend was the Homebuilder etf (XLB) which notched a new record high. The Japanese Yen (FXY) has fallen 9% since its January high of $92 and today rose above its first line of resistance. Treasuries took another jump but many are looking quite toppy. That is, all but Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP) which hit a record high. International Bonds (IGOV, BNDX) also had a good day. Investors slammed the brakes on Tesla (TSLA) on news that Elon Musk would be selling some of his stock. This caused the price to fall by 12% on nearly twice normal volume. It was probably a good thing since the stock was priced to absolute perfection.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, November 8, 2021
4:00pm ET
Once again, the market melted up with all of the major averages closing at record highs except for the Transports which is being jerked around by meme stock Avis (CAR). Despite the good news, the major averages appear to be running out of steam. And why not? They've been on a roll for a while and could use a nap. This scenario may be in the cards as volatility is starting to heat up. And I do think a period of consolidation is needed to allow a Santa rally to happen.

Block chain and cryptos are on the move. Today, Ethereum (ETHE) rang the new high register. Two new Block chain funds popped: Recent IPO Bitcoin Strategy (BITO), a futures base fund, jumped 9% while four month old Block chain etf (BKCH), which capitalizes on block chain implementations, leaped 10%. Please do your due diligence on these before buying, especially any futures based products as they can explode in your face if you're not careful.

On the bond front, Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP) along with Muni bonds (MUC, MHN) soared.

Notable New Highs: CyberSecurity (BUG, CIBR, HACK), Quantum Computing (QTUM), Uranium (URNM, URA, CCJ—go nuclear energy!), Rare Earth Minerals (REMX), Lithium (LIT). All of these have been populating the New Highs list in recent weeks.

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, November 5, 2021
4:00pm ET
The Stock Market Cook Book is on the road so today's write-up with be brief. On a broad note, all of the major averages except for the Transports closed again in record territory. Bonds across the board jumped. Travel stocks had a field day on news that the pandemic is winding down in the US. Chinese funds and stocks plummeted.

Record Highs: Water (FIW), Austria (EWO), France (EWQ), Booking (aka Priceline) (BKNG, +7.5%), Industrials (XLI), Tech (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY)--beware here as this is looking very toppy

Have a good weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, November 4, 2021
3:45pm ET
The market began the day on a bullish note but fatigue set in in most non-tech sectors. Financials (XLF) felt the most pain, dropping nearly 2%. Investors can't seem to get enough of tech related issues and a buying frenzy helped push many of the tech funds to more record highs (see below for a list of some of these funds). Right now, it appears that the Nasdaq and the S&P will be the :only major averages to close in new high territory.

Lithium (LIT) notched another record high, most likely on increasing demand in electric vehicles and hence lithium powered batteries. This move reflected new highs made in EV funds CARZ, KARS, DRIV.

Chip darling Nvidia (NVDA) received a glowing prognosis from a Wells Fargo analyst today who noted that Nvidia chips will provide a platform for the Metaverse. If you don't know what the Metaverse is, think being inside the internet instead of viewing it from the outside. If you've read the book Ready Player One or seen the movie, you'll have an idea of what I'm talking about. Well, this glowing review pushed the stock up by 14% which naturally boosted all of the funds and indices that include it. Most notably, the Semiconductor etfs (SMH +11%, SOXX +15%) benefited the most and both broke out to new record highs. This is starting to get boring to report but I'm sure holders of these funds are anything but bored.

Record Highs: Robotics (BOTZ), Cloud Computing (SKYY, CLOU), Tech (XLK, IXN), IT (VGT), Cybersecurity (CIBR, HACK), Infrastructure (GRID, PAVE); United Arab Emirates (UAE, 3.25% yield), Israel (EIS)

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, November 3, 2021
3:25pm ET
It seemed as if the bond market wasn't expecting the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged as Treasuries and investment grade bonds sold off after the announcement. Apparently, the Fed thinks that the current inflationary environment is the result of supply chain bottlenecks arising from the covid pandemic and that inflation will abate when the supply chain picks up steam. Blah blah blah. But that doesn't do anything for prices at the pump or in the grocery store. Or stock prices.

Following the announcement, all of the major averages rallied with most of them again on track to close at record highs. Obviously, the bond market hasn't been the place to be for a while and stocks are one of the few liquid investments that are still attractive. The problem is their lofty valuations. The current P/E of the S&P is around 30—nearly twice its historic average. We can probably cruise along the rally road for a while longer, but if the Fed is wrong (and it is a lot of the time) and inflation persists, they will be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later. And when that time comes, folks, there will be a mass exodus towards the exit.

Record Highs: Retail (RTH, XRT), Banks (KRE, KBE), Semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), Quantum Computing (QTUM)

Breaking Down: Shipping (BDRY) falls 8%, slicing through another line of support

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, November 2, 2021
3:30pm ET
The market continues to move higher with most sectors trading comfortably in the green. The major averages are on track to close at record highs except for the Nasdaq and Russell which are retesting their previous highs. Buying pressure going into the close would likely push those two into record territory as well. It hasn't been since January that all of the major averages closed at record highs.

The BIG winner today is the Dow Transports. The index began to take off shortly after the open and zoomed as high as 14% where it peaked an hour or so later. Major indices rarely behave this wildly and obviously something was up. The catalyst for this monster move turned out to be index component Avis (CAR). The stock in this company opened at $171 and shot up to $545, a gain of over 200%. The reason for this move was not that anything had fundamentally changed with the company but rather a massive gamma squeeze in the stock. A gamma squeeze is when a call option seller is forced to buy the underlying stock to offset the loss in the option. As more options sellers try to offset their losses, the more the price of the underlying stock rises and that is what happened today in Avis. Currently, the share price has settled back down to the $350 level. Still, that is a 100% gain since yesterday.

I'd like to also note that it appears that the Norway fund (NORW), which doubled in price yesterday on no published news. has been moved under the aegis of its sister Global X fund Nordic Region (GXF). The Global X website did not offer any details of this move but it appears that it could be a 1:2 reverse split with perhaps a bit of GXF stock thrown in. Some transparency here would be appreciated.

Record Highs: Broker/Dealers (IAI), Tech (XLK, IXN)--helped by the new record high in component Microsoft (MSFT); IT (VGT), Semiconductors (SOXX, SMH)--helped by another record high in NVidia (NVDA); Ethereum (ETHE)

Breaking support: Shipping (BDRY)--down 14% and breaking a major support level; Aussie $ (FXA)

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, November 1, 2021
2:25pm ET
The major averages again opened up but investor enthusiasm began waning mid-day. It's not clear as of now if any of the averages apart from the Russell or Nasdaq will be able to close in the green. Speaking of the Russell, it was today's out-performer, rising a whopping 2.5%. It is now flirting with its previous record high.

In other news, the Norway (NORW) fund doubled in price over Friday's closing. I scoured the internet to find out why but nothing has been reported. It looks like it could be a stock split but those are always reported well in advance of the actual event. This one is definitely a head scratcher.

Record Highs: Cotton (BAL, +4%), Electric Vehicles (DRIV, CARZ, KARS), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Quantum Computing (QTUM), Intrastructure (GRID); Israel (EIS)

New Yearly Lows:
Shipping (BDRY), Short-term Corporate Bonds (VCSH)

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 29, 2021
3:00pm ET
The market opened up but the rally began to fade mid-day as traders head for an early exit into the Halloween weekend. Right now, it looks like no new high will be made in any of the major averages. While commodities are having a relatively bad day (Nat Gas (UNG) -5%, Gold and Silver miners (GDX/J, SIL/J) -2% to -3%), Tech (XLK) is enjoying a record high. The sector leaders are CyberSecurity (CIBR, HACK, BUG) and IT (VGT). Within this space, individual tech giants Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Netflix (NFLX) are all notching all-time highs. So what else is new?

In currencies, the US Dollar (UUP) is having its best day in months (+0.8%) while the Euro (FXE) is down 1% to retest its recent low. Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETHE) is up over 4% to inch above its previous record high.

On the global front, India (IFN) has been in a two month decline off of its recent top and today slid beneath a semi-major support level. Breaking a first line of support is Norway (NORW) which has been a stellar performer this year having risen 70% in concert with the movement of oil. (Norway is a major oil producer.) Other oil producing nations are Russia (RSX), United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia (KSA). If you compare their chart patterns, you will see that they strongly follow the path of Oil (USO).

Have a boo-tiful weekend!

***The Stock Market Cook Book is out of the office today. See you tomorrow!***
October 28, 2021

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, October 27, 2021
4:00pm ET
Out of the gate, the market began to lose steam. The fall accelerated about a half hour before the close. Obviously, some news sparked this sell-off but I wasn't able to find it. I used to rely on Twitter (TWTR) for breaking news stories but those have all but evaporated over the past year or so. The obvious political bias of this platform could be the reason for lagging subscriber growth as noted today by analysts following the company. Although yesterday's earnings report showed increasing global growth, it's failure here was rightly rewarded by a 10% drop in share price today. A beautiful sight to see, indeed! (Take that, Jack.)

On the other side of the coin, Mister Softee (MSFT) reported great earnings and positive guidance and was rewarded with a 5% increase in share price. The good news pushed the stock price to another record high. The company is now a member of the rarified $2Trillion Market-Cap Club along with Apple (AAPL).

Several notable sector moves today. The first is bonds which were up bigly pretty much across the board. Some Treasuries (TLT, TLH, TLT) jumped above intermediate resistance.
The second is Base Metals. Shares of Aluminum (JJU) and Base (Industrial) Metals (JJM, DBB) sunk below support levels.
The third is Solar and so-called Clean Energy. Shares of the Solar fund (TAN) along with the Clean Energy fund (ICLN) both popped above a four month consolidation level. The move was due to solar energy converter company Enphase's (ENPH) stellar earnings report. Today's share price flared up 25% (no kidding) on 8x normal volume.

Today's Notable Movers
Breaking Down: The Marijuana fund (MJ) finally slipped under a major support level after hanging on for several weeks. This fund has been a real downer, having lost 60% of its value since its February high. Also breaking support today is the Chinese Large-Cap fund (FXI). Investors (and the rest of the world) are having a difficult time trying to determine what the future of the Chinese economy will be, judging from the recent rollercoaster ride in Chinese stocks.
Rolling Over: Banks (KRE, KBE) and Insurance (KIE) tumbled today after notching record highs. Is today's 2-3% sell-off the beginning of a bear market in financials?

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, October 26, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market rally marches on as the S&P and Dow Industrials reach new all time highs. The Nasdaq and Transports are both retesting their previous record highs while the small-cap Russell 2000 still has a squinch to go before it, too, reaches the record high mark.

Today's Notable Movers
Lockheed Martin (LMT), lost a lot of altitude on a downbeat earnings report. Revenues missed expectations and the company lowered forward guidance. The stock plunged 12% on 9x normal volume. Ouch!
Bulk Dry Shipping (BDRY. $27.5) sank nearly 10% through major support at $30. It looks poised to continue sinking until it tests its next support level at $22.50
Chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) shot up 7% to another record high on twice normal volume on news that Facebook (FB) plans on expanding its computer-based infrastructure.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, October 25, 2021
3:50pm ET
The market continues to melt up as all of the major averages are trading in the green. The Nasdaq and Dow Industrials look to close at record highs. The Transport Index, the leader in this current leg up, is retesting its previous record high but alas it appears that buying exhaustion has set in. A break above the 1600 level would set the stage for a rally continuation.

The big news today is electric car maker Tesla (TSLA) joining the Trillion dollar market-cap club. The stock not only broke out to a new high but it did so by jumping 13% on 3x normal volume. Today's move was sparked in part by price target upgrades to $1200/share (share price is now $1025) and an order from Hertz for 100k vehicles to be delivered by the end of 2022.

Today's Notable Movers
Record Highs: Electric Vehicles (CARZ, DRIV, KARS)--see Tesla news above; Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Nvidia (NVDA), Lithium (LIT)
Yearly highs: Oil Producers (XOP); Russia (RSX)
Notable Gainers: Nat Gas (UNG +11%, FCG +3%)

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 22, 2021
3:50pm ET
Today's market is mixed with the tech heavy indices (Nasdaq, S&P) moving into the red (see below for the reason) while the market-leading Transport index trucks higher by over 1%. Currently, the Dow Industrials are on track to close at a record high, helped in part by financials. Volatility remains firmly in bull territory but with the increasing crisis of confidence in the competency of the Biden administration, it will be interesting to see how long this bull run can last.

Today's Notable Movers
Record Highs: Financials (XLF), Insurance (KIE), Broker/Dealers (KIE), Regional Banks (IAT), Electric Vehicles (CARZ), Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA)
Breakdowns: Shipping (BDRY) falling below first line of support; Snapchat (SNAP) plunging 26% on missed revenue expectations based on lowered ad revenues due to changes in the Apple operating system. This also sparked a sell-off in other FANG names (GOOGL,TWTR, FB)
Looking Toppy: Gold and Silver Miners (GDX, SIL)
Looking Bottomy: Brazil (EWZ, EWZS, BRF)--very heavy trading as buyers step in

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, October 21, 2021
3:40pm ET
The market melt-up continues led by the Transports and the Nasdaq. While the small-cap Russell is still trading in the green, it is showing signs of buying exhaustion. Despite the rally in the above indices, several sectors fared badly—commodities (across the board), global funds, and bonds.

Today's Notable Movers
Record Highs: Cloud Computing (CLOU), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Netflix (NFLX, up 4.5% on a good earnings report and analyst upgrades)
Commodity Breakdowns: Copper (JJC), Aluminum (JJU)
Bond Breakdowns: Mortgage backed securities (MBB), Treasuries (SHY,IEI), International Bonds (BNDX), Corporate Bonds IGSB)
Global Funds: Pakistan (PAK, 6% yield) rising above first line of resistance; Latin America (ILF, LBJ) and Brazil (EWZ, EWZS, BRF) breaking down as questions of Brazil's fiscal solvency arise

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, October 20, 2021
3:15pm ET
The market continued its march skyward as several sectors broke out to new yearly highs or all-time highs. Energy and commodities continue to rise—good for those invested in this space, bad for consumers who have to pay for these commodities. Foreign currencies continue to move higher while the Greenback (UUP) falls under near-term resistance. Volatility continues to drop which is a bullish sign.

Today's Notable Movers
Breaking out to Record Highs: Agribiz (MOO), Nickel (JJN), Regional Banks (IAT, KRE)
Breaking out to New Highs: Banks (KBE), Insurance (KIE), Int'l Bonds (PID)
Breaking out: Utilities (XLU), Medical Devices (IHI), Healthcare (XLV, IXJ), Pharma (PPH), Reits (IYR, VNQ)
Global Funds: Saudi Arabia (KSA, 1% yield) and Canada (EWC, 1.5% yield) both climbing to record highs; Norway (NORW, 2% yield) moving into new yearly high territory. Note that all of these have significant oil holdings.

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, October 19, 2021
3:30pm ET
The market continues to march higher but that might come to an end today if the Transports are any indication of future market direction. The index popped above major resistance on Friday but today's small gains may be erased by the end of the trading session. This doesn't mean a sell-off is imminent—rather, we could be in for several days of market indigestion, aka consolidation. No biggie.

Today's Notable Movers
Record Highs: Retail (RTH), Cloud Computing (SKYY), Microsoft (MSFT, market cap = $2.3T), Russia Large Cap etf (RSX)
Breaking out: Silver (SLV), Aussie $ (FXA), S. Africa (EZA)
Chinese movers: Chinese Yuan (CYB) testing record high, Large-cap China etf (FXI) up 2.5%
Breaking Down: Sugar (SGG)

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 15, 2021
3:40pm ET
Yesterday's rally was not a one-off as all of the major averages are continuing to move higher. Today's really big news is that the Dow Transport Index not only crushed the other averages in terms of gains but more importantly, it hopped above major resistance. Adding to the good news is that the VIX shed another 5% to its lowest level (16) not seen since the beginning of September. These are all very bullish signs for a rally continuation.

The Good News
Breaking out to record highs: Financials (XLF), Broker/Dealers (IAI), Insurance (KIE), Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Breaking out: Bitcoin (GBTC), Peru (EPU—on its significant mining holdings)

The Bad News
Bonds reverse course yet again putting a halt on last week's turnaround rally. Two Treasuries (SHY, IEI) slumped to yearly lows.

Enjoy the beautiful weather and have a great weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, October 14, 2021
3:30pm ET
The market rebounded strongly today with all sectors and most commodities trading in the green. Volatility fell 9% to bullish levels not seen in over a month. Both the S&P and Dow Industrials are back to their 50 day moving averages. The Nasdaq lead the pack today headed up by Semiconductors (SMH, SOXX) and Hi-tech (BOTZ, QTUM, ROBO, CLOU, CIBR).

Commodity movers
Base metals (DBB, JJM) both popped to new highs.
Precious metals and miners continue to soar as Global Copper Miners (COPX) moved back to test major resistance.
The recent bullishness in this space has pushed the Commodity Index (DBC) to new yearly highs, gaining over 11% in 3 weeks.

Most currencies have been gaining ground against the greenback. Today, the Loonie (FXC) topped resistance, up over 0.5% on the day.

Global Funds
Indonesia funds have been on fire with EIDO up 17% and IDX up 13% in the past 2 weeks.
Norway (NORW) jumped to a 6 year high. This fund currently yields 2.1%.
India funds EPI and INDY both notched record highs.
Frontier Markets (FM) also moving to a new yearly high. This fund has been a stellar performer, having appreciated 75% since its March 2020 low. It currently yields 1.9%.

Bond funds across the board rose with International Funds getting the most love. The widely held Vanguard Developed Markets Fund (VEA) gained over 1%. The fund currently yields 2.4%.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, October 13, 2021
3:55pm ET
Today's analysis will be brief as Dr. Kris is a bit under the weather.
Cocoa ($NIB) tumbled 3%.
Precious metals and miners jumped. Silver miners topped that leaderboard. ($SIL, $SILJ).
Uranium exploded higher ($URNM +8.6%, $URA +7%, $CCJ +5%).
Bonds continue yesterday's strong reversal to the upside.

***The Stock Market Cook Book is out of the office today. See y'all manana!***
Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, October 11, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market began the week on an upnote but the early morning rally faded with most of the major averages trading either slightly in the red or near the flat line. Overall, there's not a lot of good news to propel the market higher except in the areas where bad news is good news, i.e. higher oil prices pushing that space higher and rising inflation causing bonds to tank. But more on both of those in a moment.

Today's Notable Winners
Platinum Group Metals ($PLG) broke above near-term support. It's unclear if this is the beginning of a rally or just a short-term phenomenon but with the expected increase in auto production next year, I tend to think there will be a bullish continuation. Because of supply chain issues, the platinum group metals have suffered causing this fund to shed 70% of its value since its January high.

Also moving higher are Aluminum ($JJU) and Industrial Metals (base metals) ($DBB, $JJM). All three of these funds jumped to new yearly highs, although it seems as if some buying exhaustion is setting in.

Oil continues to gush as the following funds inch to more new highs: $OIL, $USO, $BNO, $FRAK.

Today's Notable Losers
While fossil fuels have been rallying, the same is not true for the so-called clean energy names. Today, Wind Energy ($FAN) broke a major support level at $20. Could the next stop be at its $18 support level?

The Yen ($FXY) continues to slide. Today it slumped almost 1% (a lot in the currency market) to a near 5 year low at $83. The next stop could well be at its $80 support level. I would say sayonara on this one for a while.

Intermediate Term Bonds hit new lows: Treasuries ($SHY, $IEI), Investment Grade Corporate ($VCSH, $IGSB). International Bond fund $IGOV also recorded a new yearly low. Right now, only Junk Bond funds ($HYB, $HYT) seem to be holding up

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 8, 2021
2:45pm ET
A weak jobs report didn't tank the market but it didn't help it, either. The major averages are all trading lower or flatlining except for the Transport Index which is moving to the upside. Volatility is also lower—another good sign, at least for the near-term. However, considering the continuating budget and debt ceiling battles in Congress, I believe that all bets are off as to liong term market predictions.

There are some interesting market movements today, especially to the downside. Bonds continue to fall as Mortgage-backed Securities ($MBB, $VMBS) sink to new yearly lows. Corporate bonds ($LQD, $SPLB, $IGSB) are plunging through major support levels, a sign of more suffering to come. (Remember that higher bond yields decrease the value of current bonds.) The Yen ($FXY) also is notching a new yearly low.

On the flip side, the white metals Palladium ($PALL), Platinum ($PPLT), and Nickel ($JJN) all jumped in the 5% range today. The reason given for this big move is that auto makers should be able to return to full vehicle production next year as the semiconductor shortage is now forecast to be over by then. (The while metals are used in catalytic converters.)

Have a football-icious fall foliage weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, October 7, 2021
3:05pm ET
The market jumped on two pieces of news. Preliminary jobs report shows a drop in jobless claims—the first drop in a month. The second piece of news is that Republicans agreed to a debt limit extension, essentially doing one of the few things that Congress knows how to do best: Kicking the can down the road. (Other things they do admirably well is to bury any term-limit piece of legislation and to promptly vote themselves hefty raises.)

The major averages popped on the open reflecting a knee-jerk response to the news. However, the Transport Index is a little bit smarter than the rest and it isn't quite as easy to hoodwink as it began fading almost immediately after the open. As of this writing, it is the only major index now dipping into the red. What this may signal is that today's rally could be a one-off. Prudent investors may elect to wait for follow-through confirmation before taking this as a hard buy signal

Again, there's not a lot of notable news today. The big highlight is the jump in Chinese securities. The China Large-Cap fund ($FXI) gained over 4% with its high-tech names jumping even more: $BABA +9%, $TCEHY +8%, $KWEB +7%, $BIDU +5%. The other highlight is that the Russia Large Cap fund ($RSX) notched another new yearly high. It appears that communism does pay off.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, October 6, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market tanked on open but steadily recovered not only all of its ground but with some to spare. Most sectors followed suit with Utilities ($XLU) leading the pack. Tech names recovered some ground following a recent bout of the blues. Market internals suggest that short-term continuation of the rally is likely but a stubbornly elevated $VIX (Volatility Index) could put a damper on investor enthusiasm in the long run.

There's not a whole lot to report on today but here are a couple of technical standouts:
Globally, S. Korea ($EWY) and Latin America ($ILF) broke support while Indonesia ($IDX, $EIDO) pushed above major resistance.
In bonds, two Junk Bond funds ($HYG, $JNK) violated support levels.
In currencies, the Euro ($FXE) slid to a new yearly low on twice normal volume.

Today's Market Highlights—Tuesday, October 5, 2021
3:30pm ET
A broad market rebound salvaged the potential breakdown in the major averages, some of which have been testing major support levels as noted here in recent days. The Dow Transport Index is today's winner gaining over 2%. High tech names which have been foundering recently also got some much needed love. Buying pressure stopped the hemorrhaging in Facebook ($FB), despite yesterday's platform outages and whistleblower testimony before Congress. Kevin O'Leary (Shark Tank's Mr. Wonderful) came on CNBC today to say that Facebook is an important communication resource especially for small businesses. His well-timed oratorio probably helped shore up some perceived negativity about the company. (Ahem.)

Hitting New Highs:
Oil ($USO, $OIL, $BNO, $FRAK) and Nat Gas ($UNG) continue to flow higher as domestic and global supply constraints continue. This accounts for the break-out in the Russia Large Cap ($RSX) fund of which 36% of its holdings are in energy.
Commodities were mostly trading in the green with Cotton ($BAL) jumping 5.5% on very heavy volume.
FANG name Netflix ($NFLX) notched another record high, popping nearly 6% on twice normal volume. The reason for the move is a bullish earnings upgrade based on a very positive user survey.

Today's Market Highlights—Monday, October 4, 2021
3:35pm ET
It appears as if the bears are moving into the driver's seat as pretty much all sectors save energy are trading to the downside. The S&P, Dow Industrials, and the Nasdaq have all slumped to major support levels while the market leading Dow Transport Index is still a breath above its support level. Should these indices breech these levels, the bears would definitely be in control. In this case, raising cash and sitting on the sidelines would be the prudent play call.

Big News of the Day: Social media giant Facebook ($FB) tumbled nearly 6% on outages in its Facebook, What's App, and Instagram platforms. Nice job to the brilliant hacker who did this. Would you please take down Twitter next?

Today's Notable Breakouts
Oil is gushing higher as barrel prices continue to rise (thanks Joe!). Hitting new yearly highs are $OIL, $USO, $BNO, $FRAK along with Oil Producers ($XOP).
Shipping ($BDRY) continues to cruise to new highs.

Today's Notable Breakdowns
Rare Earths ($REMX)
Tech: Software ($PSJ), Internet ($PNQI), Robotics & AI ($BOTZ), IT ($VGT). The much touted Innovation etf ($ARKK) managed by current Wall Street darling fund manager Cathy Wood also broke support, due in part to its heavy holding in Facebook ($FB). This fund has been in a swoon since its February high.
Big Tech companies ($AAPL, $TWTR, $FB (See above))
Healthcare ($XLV, $IXJ), Medical device makers ($IHI), and Biotech ($IBB, $BBH)
China ($CHN, $FXI (new yearly low)), Japan ($EWJ)

Today's Market Highlights—Friday, October 1, 2021
3:55pm ET
The market mercifully rebounded today, in some cases erasing yesterday's losses. The major averages managed to hang onto support levels, at least for now. However, if one looks at the market internals, things don't seem quite so rosy. I will be writing a short piece on the state of the market to be posted later today, so stay tuned! [Update at 7:30pm ET: The article has just been posted below.]

Today's Highlights
Softs (aka agricultural commodities) jumped with Coffee ($JO, +5.3%), Wheat ($WEAT, +3.7%), and Cocoa ($NIB, +3%) gaining the most.
Today's gains in nearly all commodities pushed the Commodity fund ($DBC) to an all-time high. Also notching a record high is Shipping ($BDRY).
Bonds are having a good day as interest rates sink. Investors are happy with the news and there is heavy buying activity especially in Treasuries. Long term debt is receiving the most love with $TLT, $VGLT, and $TLH up 0.6%-0.8% as today's biggest gainers.

That's it for now. Enjoy the weekend!

Today's Market Highlights—Thursday, September 30, 2021
2:55pm ET
Major averages are lower today with all of them except the Russell 2000 testing major support levels. However, there are signs that prices are firming up and the support levels could hold—at least for today.

Today's trading action is fairly nondescript but there are a few highlights. Precious metals firmed up today with buyers stepping in to shore up yesterday's sell-off. FANG name Netflix ($NFLX) jumped 3% to a record high as the company moves into the mobile videogaming space.

Today's Market Highlights—Wednesday, September 29, 2021
3:35pm ET
The major averages are absorbing yesterday's sell-off with all of them trading in the green except for the Transports. The Transport Index is traditionally regarded as a leading market indicator and its chart is showing a steady decline from its March 1600 high. If's close to
Recent Articles
Is a Correction Looming?
October 1, 2021 at 4:20 pm

The market has been defying gravity since the March, 2009 low and many Wall Street pundits forecast a continuation of the melt up at least until the end of this year. But is this prognostication justified?

Could it be that the continued rise in equities is due to the fact that the Fed has kept interest rates artificially low? Many say that this is the likely case and I have to agree with them. But will this continue to be the case? Maybe for the near future but what happens if inflation keeps rising, as it has started to do? There’s no doubt, at least in my mind, that we could be in for a painful market correction. The reason I draw this conclusion is based in part on the market internals, many of which are near, at, or have exceeded historic levels.

Let’s consider some key internals gathered by multpl.com over the past 150 years for the large-cap S&P 500 index:

Price/Earnings (P/E)
Current: 33.99 (Third highest in history)
Historic Mean: 15.95
% Above/Below the mean: +213%
Historic Median: 14.86
% Above/Below the mean: +229%

Current: 4.64 (Second highest in history)
Historic Mean: 2.89
% Above/Below the mean: +160%
Historic Median: 2.78
% Above/Below the mean: +167%

Current: 3.13 (Highest in history)
Historic Mean: 1.62
% Above/Below the mean: +193%
Historic Median: 1.52
% Above/Below the mean: +206%

Earnings Yield
Current: 2.94% (Third lowest in history)
Historic Mean: 7.30%
% Above/Below the mean: -60%
Historic Median: 6.73%
% Above/Below the mean: -56%

Dividend Yield
Current: 1.33% (A virtual tie with the 2000 historic low)
Historic Mean: 4.30%
% Above/Below the mean: -69%
Historic Median: 4.26%
% Above/Below the mean: -69%

The above statics indeed show that the market is on very shaky grounds. There is no question that we are well overdue for a reversion to the mean but when exactly that will occur is up to the Fed regarding monetary policy and up to Congress regarding raising the debt ceiling and continuing their drunken spending spree.

Methinks this won’t end well.

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