Archive for May, 2016

Tra-la or ruh-roh?

Monday, May 9th, 2016

I know it may sound unthinkable, but there are times when even market technicians can’t predict the future direction of the S&P. One of those times just so happens to be right now. There are two moving average cross-overs currently flashing conflicting messages–one bullish and one extremely bearish.

Let’s take a quick look at both.

SPX Golden Cross

In the bullish corner we have the recent formation of a Golden Cross in the S&P’s daily chart. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, it is when the 50 day moving average (50 dma) moves above the 200 dma on a daily chart. Historically, it has shown to be a fairly reliable indicator of a change in market direction from bearish to bullish. From the below chart we can see that a Golden Cross formed around April 26.

In the bearish corner, we have what I’m going to term a Correction Cross because no one else has yet named it. This is when the 50 dma moves below the 100 dma on a weekly chart, not a daily one. A Correction Cross has formed only twice in recent history. The first was at the end of beginning of April, 2001 which heralded the tech correction. The second time was in late June, 2008 at the beginning stages of the mortgage crisis. Here’s what the chart looks like today:

SPX Correction Cross

The above chart shows that it may be a bit too early to call a Correction Cross, but it’s ominously close. What does this all mean? Well, the only thing I know for sure is that right now I don’t know anything for sure. For this reason, I would recommend that sitting on the sidelines may be the most prudent place for cautious investors , at least until market direction is confirmed, one way or the other.

Sugar: Short-Term Shock, But Long-Term Outlook Is Sweet

Friday, May 6th, 2016

The Sugar etf  (SGG) suffered one of its largest one day losses in years yesterday (5/5/16). There was nothing in the news to suggest the reason for this massive sell-off (at least that I could find), so I asked my friend, Edgard Cabanillas–a commodities trader specializing in agricultural commodities, if he might have an explanation.

Here is his response sent via email:

“Fund selling to an extreme with upcoming NFP and stronger USD in the last few days. Long-term things to consider are that Wilmar and other cash players (along with funds) are bullish and taking appropriate position in the futures and physical markets. Outlook for tighter balance sheets into 2017 are still present so I am still long the spreads in sugar and will do so. USDA releasing a special sugar outlook next week should help to shed light. They say that funds are almost record long sugar, that to me is supportive to being long myself.”

If you wish further information, please contact Edgard directly via the contact info below. He publishes a weekly newsletter along with his trade recommendations so that you can either trade along with him or he’ll do it for you. Last year his fund did very well and for those who are looking to diversify some of their portfolio into commodities, you may wish to consider his fund. And no, I am not receiving any compensation for mentioning him except for the occasional newsletter.

Edgard Cabanillas
President, Alpine Trading LLC
Tel: + 1 949 357 4948 U.S.
+ 41 76 785 4487 CH