Archive for May, 2010

Blue Plate Specials Portfolio Update

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

How wild is this market? To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.”

No kidding. Today, the market slid down on the heels of the bears, then it marched right back up again on the back of the bulls, forming an almost perfect V pattern. Following that, a tug of war between both camps ensued with the volatility ping-ponging in reflection. Floor traders must have been ordering lunch from Maalox.

The trading day ended with no one clearly in charge, although the Nasdaq and the Dow transports (DTX) closing just below major support plus the fact that the Trin (Arms Index) rang in low (but not too contrarianly low) places the football inches over the 50 yard line in favor of ‘da bears. (Yes, I know it’s baseball season but I couldn’t think of a decent metaphor.)

Anyway, the good news is that I closed out yesterday’s shorts for a fairly decent return of over 2%. Sure, two percent a day is nothing to sneeze at but in this market the portfolio could have easily been down that and more on the open.

The feint-hearted needn’t dip their toes into this maelstrom. Higher volatility might be in the prevailing wind for a while. To paraphrase the divine Miss Bette again, “I’m nobody’s fool, least of all the market’s.”

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/18/10

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

This may be completely foolhardy, but I’m initiating a short portfolio today since the market still looks like it has a bit further to fall. The stress here is on the word “short” since if the market looks like it’s going to rebound in the next day or so, I’ll be covering these positions. When it comes to shorting stocks, waiting until the SPX moves back over its 40dma is a losing proposition.

Here are today’s picks selected from the New Lows and Breaking Down lists in today’s *Blue Plate Specials.*

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/12/10

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

The question of the day was this: Will the SPX hit its 40 dma or won’t it? About an hour before the close, we got our answer. The SPX finally hit its benchmark indicator prompting orders to cover all of the open short positions in the Blue Plate Specials Daily portfolios.

Here’s the damage:

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No long positions were initiated as the 40dma wasn’t broken decisively. I’m going to take the prudent approach and wait until tomorrow for rally confirmation.

The realized portfolio return (for the past 10 daily portfolios) is -2.06%.

For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/11/10

Tuesday, May 11th, 2010

The market moved up steadily until 2pm ET when it abruptly reversed course. It looked as if the SPX was going to trip the 40 dma forcing a covering of all of our short positions and initiation of long ones, but it never happened. Maybe tomorrow..?

The good news was that I was able to find four decent short candidates. (I had DF on my list but that was yesterday’s only short pick.) Today’s selections were chosen from the new yearly lows and the breaking down lists from today’s *Blue Plate Specials* on the right.

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/10/10

Monday, May 10th, 2010

The market rebounded sharply today erasing much of last week’s losses. However, the SPX is still trading below its 40 day moving average and as such we’re maintaining our short positions.

There was a paucity of shorting candidates and only one made today’s list. It was one of the two on the new yearly lows list given in today’s *Blue Plate Specials* on the right.

I was tempted to cover AV in the 5/6 portfolio as it is in the red by about 10%, but it hasn’t broken overhead resistance leaving it with a chance of moving back down. If it moves up tomorrow, I will definitely cover it.

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/07/10

Friday, May 7th, 2010

A rollercoaster market day with major averages tickling minor support levels. This bearish ride is not over just yet!

Today’s short picks come from the New Yearly Lows and the Breaking Down lists on today’s *Blue Plate Specials*.

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/06/10

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

Fear gripped the market today spurring a rapid sell-off and a concomitant flight to the safety of precious metals, US dollar, US treasuries, and the Japanese Yen.

There was no shortage of candidates to short and here’s my list culled from the New Yearly Lows list on today’s *Blue Plate Specials*.

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio: Special Update

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

Since the SPX crossed over its 40 day moving average, the long portfolios were closed out yesterday. Unfortunately, they all closed at a loss. Such is life at market turnovers.

Here are how the four individual portfolios fared. Note that no daily portfolios were initiated for the week of April 26-30.

The overall total return so far is -3.9%.

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*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/05/10

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

The market is still in bear market mode and we are generating short portfolios.

All of today’s candidates are culled from the New Yearly Lows and the Breaking Down lists on today’s *Blue Plate Specials.*

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For more info on how this portfolio is generated and how you can generate your own, see the fund rules in the 4/21/10 blog.

Update
Today I covered short position ESE at $32.10. It was initiated in yesterday’s portfolio. The stock jumped at the open on good earnings news–yet another example of why it’s never wise to hold a position (especially a short one) over earnings.

Also, I mentioned yesterday that I closed out the long portfolios. I didn’t have time to post the results yesterday but I will later today. My apologies for any inconvenience.

*Blue Plate Specials* Portfolio – 5/04/10

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

Today the S&P 500 violated its 40 day moving average. According to the rules of this portfolio (see Blog 4/21/10), we liquidated all of our long positions and initiated a short portfolio of five stocks with each position worth $1000. (No commission costs included and only stocks over $5 are shorted.)

Note that market declines are generally more violent and much more short-lived than rallies, so you must be vigilant in monitoring these positions and be ready to cover should the position move against you. The portfolio can be held for up to eleven days but usually the positions are closed out before then.

All of today’s candidates are culled from the New Yearly Lows list on today’s *Blue Plate Specials*.

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I closed out the other four long portfolios and will post them shortly.